A Third-Party Conservative’s 7-State Plan to Save the Republic

Third Party Candidate Could Win

As with most Presidential elections since 1984, the electoral map can be reduced to around 10 states. Most states are solidly locked to favor one party or the other. This particular election year, we don’t want to take anything for granted, but if the right candidate with a solid election disruption plan can pull things together in the month of June, they would have a very good chance of denying both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the Presidency outright.

This has been talked about before, but I haven’t seen anyone propose a plan. Here it is. When it’s viewed through a lens of determination and hope, it’s not as far-fetched as mainstream media would have you believe. The key is in understanding that to win the Presidency, a third-party conservative would not have to run a national campaign. In fact, they could pull it off by winning as few as seven states. Within that framework, the prospects of getting someone other than the two disastrous choices being put forth to the nation becomes less hopeless.

Let’s look at the plan itself, then we’ll examine the criteria for the right candidate.

Deny 270

It’s been pointed out many times, but just in case… the third candidate would not have to win the general election. They simply need to prevent Trump and Clinton from getting to 270 electoral votes. With no majority in the electoral college, the President is chosen by the House of Representatives from among the top three candidates. Each state gets 1 vote. Republicans control 32 of the 50 congressional caucuses, so in that scenario it would be either Trump or the third-party conservative. Incidentally, the VP is selected by the Senate among the top two candidates, so whoever Trump selects as VP would almost certainly win regardless of who the House selects as President.

The Math

Based upon current projections, Clinton has solid hold on 227 electoral votes while Trump has control over 180. The 10 swing states that will decide the election in a two-person race are Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, New Hampshire, and Iowa. It’s exceptionally important that Clinton is denied from winning more than a couple of these which is why strategic selection is important. President Obama won eight of them in 2012; only North Carolina and Arizona went to Mitt Romney. I don’t have the research or a team of strategists to select the best opportunities, but based upon the closeness of the vote, the best states to go after would be the ones that Obama barely won in 2012. Obama won Colorado with 51%, Florida, with 50%, Iowa with 52%, Nevada with 52%, New Hampshire with 52%, Ohio with 50%, and Virginia with 51%,

If Trump wins the red states plus Arizona and North Carolina, he’d have 206 electoral votes. If Clinton could lose the seven states listed above, she’d have 247. Trump could win any combination of those states as long as he is kept below the 270 electoral vote threshold. In this very specific and challenging scenario, the President would be selected by the House of Representatives. It’s a scenario that’s nearly impossible.

Nearly. Not completely. If a solid candidate emerges, the math would not be a problem.

Getting on the Ballots

While efforts should be made to get on as many ballots as possible, the seven key states above would be the only required ones. Of those, the only two with challenges in getting on the ballot would be Nevada and Florida. Nevada’s deadline is July 8 and requires 1% of the previous congressional election’s votes, so if a third candidate launches July 1, they’d have a week to get just under 6,000 signatures. Florida is more challenging. The deadline is July 15, but they’d need 1% of total registered voters. Currently, that would mean they’d have two weeks to get nearly 120,000 signatures. Again, not impossible but it would take a strong organization and likely some television ads very quickly. It wouldn’t hurt if Jeb Bush would lend a hand. If they couldn’t get on the Florida ballot, they’d need to steal a blue state. Obama won Wisconsin in 2012 with 53%; Scott Walker would need to go all in to make this happen.

The other five states have deadlines after July.

Raising Money

Pundits have said that a candidate would need to raise between $250M all the way up to $1B to be viable. The lower end of the range is not only more realistic when we consider the need to only campaign in seven states. It’s also achievable. Without the backing of the parties, it’s not an easy task, but with the help of #NeverTrump pundits spreading the word, experienced fundraisers and bundlers getting funds, and an electorate growing more disenchanted with the options every day, it isn’t as daunting as one might believe. Then again, we’re talking about a quarter of a billion dollars, so maybe it truly is impossible. I simply don’t have the experience to know. Thankfully, there are people who know. Thankfully, there are people who would try for the right candidate.

The Right Candidate

Conventional wisdom would say that picking a moderate is the right way to go. After all, Romney won among Independents in 2012. However, it would be a mistake to put up another moderate. Independents aren’t all moderates. A good chunk of them are just as polarized as those registered with a party. With a liberal Democrat from New York going against a liberal Democrat from New York who pretends to be a Republican, the best thing to do is to draw a clear contrast. There’s another reason which I’ll discuss below.

What’s more important than where they are on the conservative/liberal scale is the measure of their perceived character. The biggest weakness of one candidate is being a corrupt liar. The other candidate is just as corrupt and lies just as often. A trustworthy and honorable third-party candidate could win states on integrity alone.

Here are some of the other criteria:

  • Relate With Voters: Year after year, the candidate that relates with voters the best is the one who wins. It’s sad that the parties have chosen a woman who claims to have been “dead broke” when she left the White House and man who had to take out a “small loan” of a million dollars to boost his failing portion of the empire he was born into.
  • Appealing to Females: Those who believe that Trump can win with the male vote need to remember that Romney won the male vote in 2012. Women will decide the election which is why Trump can’t win swing states other than North Carolina and Arizona.  Despite being a woman, Clinton isn’t locked in with female voters. They tend to put more weight on character and Clinton’s character is questionable (and I’m being nice with my choice of words).
  • No Skeletons in the Closet: Trump will do his best to keep his skeletons locked away and Clinton has most of her skeletons in cemeteries. Both of them have skeletons and voters know it whether they come out or not. The third candidate doesn’t have to be a saint, but a major scandal would cling to them like Velcro against two corrupt people made of Teflon.
  • Different on Policies: The attack points would be the ones where Clinton and Trump are similar. The financial message must be that lower taxes for all, free trade, and establishing a business-friendly environment is necessary to grow the economy and bring back jobs. The military message should be one of Reaganesque strength; not isolationism but not adventure through intervention, either. The foreign policy message should be that we embrace our allies and condemn our enemies; no loving on Vladimir Putin. Then, there’s one other policy that must stand out…
  • No Men in Women’s Bathrooms, No Boys on Girls Teams: Trump’s biggest mistake from a policy perspective when it comes to the common voter was not capitalized upon by his competitors. He thinks transgenders should use the restroom of their choice. Since then, he’s backtracked and said that it should be a state issue, but his perspective is on record. The majority of Americans don’t want to see that happen. Pundits and competitors gave it very little attention because they didn’t see it as a voting issue, but if the right candidate pushes hard against it, the voters can be made to care.
  • Not Necessarily Someone Known: When news broke that David French was considering a run, pundits instantly said that he couldn’t win because of name recognition. That’s what the quarter billion dollars is for. The best person for the job would be less like Mitt Romney and more like Ben Sasse or other conservatives that are not big names nationwide. Why? The reason that many are voting for Trump is that he’s not Clinton. The reason that many are voting for Clinton is that she’s not Trump. We need someone who’s not Trump or Hilllary. There are already 24% who are feeling the need for another option and that number would only go up if the right candidate launches a campaign.
  • A Republican: This should go without saying, but if this goes to the House of Representatives, the only way to keep them from selecting Trump is if the third-party conservative was favorable to Republicans. Trump attacks Republicans. The third candidate shouldn’t be an establishment favorite, but it can’t be a Libertarian or an alt right favorite, either.

The odds are slim for all of this to happen. It’s not because it can’t be done. It’s because nobody has been granted the courage and desire to participate. America needs a strong leader to step up and prevent the worst Presidential disaster to befall our nation in the modern era. If the right person makes the right decision, we’ll do everything we can to help them.

Leave a Reply

8 comments

  1. Brian Peterson

    I completely disagree that this is the best strategy. If Obama won 8 of those 10 states, how is Clinton going to be defeated in ANY of those states if we split the traditionally republican vote between Trump and a 3rd party candidate in those states? I think the right math is for Trump to steal enough of those states in order to prevent Clinton from getting to 270, and then have the 3rd party candidate win enough of the strongly conservative states (where Trump performed poorly in the primaries), such as Nebraska, Oklahoma, the Dakotas, Idaho, Wyoming, Kansas, Utah, Alaska and, most importantly, Texas, where even if the traditionally republican vote is split somewhat between Trump and the 3rd party candidate, Clinton still could not gain a plurality. Those states total 69 electoral votes – more than enough to offset the electoral votes that Trump could steal from Clinton by splitting those 10 states that you mentioned, thus also keeping Trump from getting to 270.

  2. Justice

    The author states “the President is chosen by the House of Representatives from among the top three candidates. Each state gets 1 vote. Republicans control 32 of the 50 congressional caucuses, so in that scenario it would be either Trump or the third-party conservative.” He is overlooking some crucial information here. Just because the house is controlled by what we call republicans, it does not mean it is controlled by conservatives. Republicans at times seem to be as stupid as liberals. They have control but they never do anything with it. Why should we assume our elected officials would be smart enough to pick the right person? I’m not convinced. Second, he fails to realize that Killery is going to win because she has the illegal votes wrapped up and the dead voters always vote liberal. Republicans have never been able to figure out how to persuade the illegals and the dead to vote conservative. The election is rigged. Killery will be the first president that should have been in prison instead of in the WH.

  3. Susien Sugeng

    We can still stop the nomination of Trump, if GOP delegates have a good conscience (dumping vile egomaniac con-artist Trump and voting for Ted Cruz) in every ballot.
    – FREE E-BOOK/pdf! Delegates, you are unbound even for the first ballot! Vote for Ted Cruz in the first and second ballots! http://thisiscommonsense.com/pdf/Unbound_online.pdf

    Unbound: The Conscience of a Republican Delegate by Curly Haugland & Sean Parnell
    “This timely book makes a powerful case that delegates to the Republican Party convention are not bound to vote for any particular candidate based on primary and caucus results, state party rules, or even state law. Co-authors Sean Parnell and Curly Haugland document nearly 240 instances at past conventions in which delegates invoked their right to vote their conscience.” http://www.citizensinchargefoundation.org/unbound

    – Trump hasn’t closed the deal—WE still decide who the nominee will be
    An op-ed by Haughland and Parnell: http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/26/trump-hasnt-closed-the-deal-gop-delegates-still-decide-who-the-nominee-will-be-commentary.html

    – RNC RULES THAT ALLOW YOU TO WITHHOLD ANY VOTE FOR Trump
    Rule 16 (a) (2)
    The Secretary of the Convention shall faithfully announce and record each delegate’s vote in accordance
    with the delegate’s obligation under these rules, state law or state party rule. If any delegate bound by these rules, state party rule
    or state law to vote for a presidential candidate at the national convention demonstrates support under Rule 40 for any person
    other than the candidate to whom he or she is bound, such support shall not be recognized. Except as provided for by state law or
    state party rule, no presidential candidate shall have the power to remove a delegate.
    If a delegate does not vote for the candidate to whom they are bound they will lose their vote. But, if bound to Trump and they do not vote for Trump, Trump will not get their vote nor will the candidate they voted for. They have effectively removed a vote from Trump. This could affect Trump getting the 1237 in the first ballot. they will still be allowed to vote (unbound) in other ballots.
    #TrumpStopper

    Prior related posts:
    – Dear GOP Delegates, save the Republic, vote not for con-artist Trump, but conservative Ted Cruz!
    — https://thespeechatimeforchoosing.wordpress.com/2016/05/12/an-open-letter-and-urgent-plea-to-all-republican-delegates-headed-to-cleveland/#comment-51962
    –www.facebook.com/SaveLiberty/photos/a.188831138145865.1073741828.188807898148189/243960015966310/?type=3&theater
    — Kathy: Delegates Can Vote #TedCruz On The 1st Ballot at the Republican Convention per GOP Rule #38, backed up by the Constitution and Supreme Court Rulings!
    – The convention in July determines the nominee and the delegates are unbound in the first ballot. Please look at this it gives us hope.
    https://youtu.be/XuJH96AFrqQ

    FLASH! Report that Delegates Have Enough Votes to Nominate Cruz on 1st Ballot
    http://www.redstate.com/diary/blbennett/2016/05/28/flash-report-delegates-enough-votes-nominate-cruz-1st-ballot/
    #CharacterMatters, #nevertrump #NeverHillary, #WriteInCruz, #WriteInTedCruz, #MakeDonaldDrumpfAgain, #DumpTrump
    #AlwaysConstitutionalConservativeCruz #AlwaysPrinciples #AlwaysFreedomFighter #NeverNastyMouthLiarAndConmanTrump

    See more in the comment lines.

  4. Susien Sugeng

    – FREE E-BOOK/pdf! Delegates, you are unbound even for the first ballot! Vote for Ted Cruz in the first and second ballots! http://thisiscommonsense.com/pdf/Unbound_online.pdf

    Unbound: The Conscience of a Republican Delegate by Curly Haugland & Sean Parnell
    “This timely book makes a powerful case that delegates to the Republican Party convention are not bound to vote for any particular candidate based on primary and caucus results, state party rules, or even state law. Co-authors Sean Parnell and Curly Haugland document nearly 240 instances at past conventions in which delegates invoked their right to vote their conscience.” http://www.citizensinchargefoundation.org/unbound

    – Trump hasn’t closed the deal—WE still decide who the nominee will be
    An op-ed by Haughland and Parnell: http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/26/trump-hasnt-closed-the-deal-gop-delegates-still-decide-who-the-nominee-will-be-commentary.html

    – RNC RULES THAT ALLOW YOU TO WITHHOLD ANY VOTE FOR Trump
    Rule 16 (a) (2)
    The Secretary of the Convention shall faithfully announce and record each delegate’s vote in accordance
    with the delegate’s obligation under these rules, state law or state party rule. If any delegate bound by these rules, state party rule
    or state law to vote for a presidential candidate at the national convention demonstrates support under Rule 40 for any person
    other than the candidate to whom he or she is bound, such support shall not be recognized. Except as provided for by state law or
    state party rule, no presidential candidate shall have the power to remove a delegate.
    If a delegate does not vote for the candidate to whom they are bound they will lose their vote. But, if bound to Trump and they do not vote for Trump, Trump will not get their vote nor will the candidate they voted for. They have effectively removed a vote from Trump. This could affect Trump getting the 1237 in the first ballot. they will still be allowed to vote (unbound) in other ballots.
    #TrumpStopper

    Prior related posts:
    – Dear GOP Delegates, save the Republic, vote not for con-artist Trump, but conservative Ted Cruz!
    — https://thespeechatimeforchoosing.wordpress.com/2016/05/12/an-open-letter-and-urgent-plea-to-all-republican-delegates-headed-to-cleveland/#comment-51962
    –www.facebook.com/SaveLiberty/photos/a.188831138145865.1073741828.188807898148189/243960015966310/?type=3&theater
    — Kathy: Delegates Can Vote #TedCruz On The 1st Ballot at the Republican Convention per GOP Rule #38, backed up by the Constitution and Supreme Court Rulings!
    – The convention in July determines the nominee and the delegates are unbound in the first ballot. Please look at this it gives us hope.
    https://youtu.be/XuJH96AFrqQ

    FLASH! Report that Delegates Have Enough Votes to Nominate Cruz on 1st Ballot
    http://www.redstate.com/diary/blbennett/2016/05/28/flash-report-delegates-enough-votes-nominate-cruz-1st-ballot/
    #CharacterMatters, #nevertrump #NeverHillary, #WriteInCruz, #WriteInTedCruz, #MakeDonaldDrumpfAgain, #DumpTrump
    #AlwaysConstitutionalConservativeCruz #AlwaysPrinciples #AlwaysFreedomFighter #NeverNastyMouthLiarAndConmanTrump

    -1
  5. Susien Sugeng

    We still can stop Trump to get the nomination at the Convention! The GOP delegates should need to vote based on their conscience (dump Trump and choose Ted Cruz) at every ballot!

    – FREE E-BOOK/pdf! Delegates, you are unbound even for the first ballot! Vote for Ted Cruz in the first and second ballots! http://thisiscommonsense.com/pdf/Unbound_online.pdf

    Unbound: The Conscience of a Republican Delegate by Curly Haugland & Sean Parnell
    “This timely book makes a powerful case that delegates to the Republican Party convention are not bound to vote for any particular candidate based on primary and caucus results, state party rules, or even state law. Co-authors Sean Parnell and Curly Haugland document nearly 240 instances at past conventions in which delegates invoked their right to vote their conscience.” http://www.citizensinchargefoundation.org/unbound

    – Trump hasn’t closed the deal—WE still decide who the nominee will be
    An op-ed by Haughland and Parnell: http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/26/trump-hasnt-closed-the-deal-gop-delegates-still-decide-who-the-nominee-will-be-commentary.html

    – RNC RULES THAT ALLOW YOU TO WITHHOLD ANY VOTE FOR Trump
    Rule 16 (a) (2)
    The Secretary of the Convention shall faithfully announce and record each delegate’s vote in accordance
    with the delegate’s obligation under these rules, state law or state party rule. If any delegate bound by these rules, state party rule
    or state law to vote for a presidential candidate at the national convention demonstrates support under Rule 40 for any person
    other than the candidate to whom he or she is bound, such support shall not be recognized. Except as provided for by state law or
    state party rule, no presidential candidate shall have the power to remove a delegate.
    If a delegate does not vote for the candidate to whom they are bound they will lose their vote. But, if bound to Trump and they do not vote for Trump, Trump will not get their vote nor will the candidate they voted for. They have effectively removed a vote from Trump. This could affect Trump getting the 1237 in the first ballot. they will still be allowed to vote (unbound) in other ballots.
    #TrumpStopper

    Prior related posts:
    – Dear GOP Delegates, save the Republic, vote not for con-artist Trump, but conservative Ted Cruz!
    — https://thespeechatimeforchoosing.wordpress.com/2016/05/12/an-open-letter-and-urgent-plea-to-all-republican-delegates-headed-to-cleveland/#comment-51962
    –www.facebook.com/SaveLiberty/photos/a.188831138145865.1073741828.188807898148189/243960015966310/?type=3&theater
    — Kathy: Delegates Can Vote #TedCruz On The 1st Ballot at the Republican Convention per GOP Rule #38, backed up by the Constitution and Supreme Court Rulings!
    – The convention in July determines the nominee and the delegates are unbound in the first ballot. Please look at this it gives us hope.
    https://youtu.be/XuJH96AFrqQ

    FLASH! Report that Delegates Have Enough Votes to Nominate Cruz on 1st Ballot
    http://www.redstate.com/diary/blbennett/2016/05/28/flash-report-delegates-enough-votes-nominate-cruz-1st-ballot/
    #CharacterMatters, #nevertrump #NeverHillary, #WriteInCruz, #WriteInTedCruz, #MakeDonaldDrumpfAgain, #DumpTrump
    #AlwaysConstitutionalConservativeCruz #AlwaysPrinciples #AlwaysFreedomFighter #NeverNastyMouthLiarAndConmanTrump

  6. Susien Sugeng

    We can still stop the nomination of Trump at the Convention! The GOP delegates need to vote for their consience (dumping vile egomaniac con-artist Trump and voting for Ted Cruz).

    – FREE E-BOOK/pdf! Delegates, you are unbound even for the first ballot! Vote for Ted Cruz in the first and second ballots! http://thisiscommonsense.com/pdf/Unbound_online.pdf

    Unbound: The Conscience of a Republican Delegate by Curly Haugland & Sean Parnell
    “This timely book makes a powerful case that delegates to the Republican Party convention are not bound to vote for any particular candidate based on primary and caucus results, state party rules, or even state law. Co-authors Sean Parnell and Curly Haugland document nearly 240 instances at past conventions in which delegates invoked their right to vote their conscience.” http://www.citizensinchargefoundation.org/unbound

    – Trump hasn’t closed the deal—WE still decide who the nominee will be
    An op-ed by Haughland and Parnell: http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/26/trump-hasnt-closed-the-deal-gop-delegates-still-decide-who-the-nominee-will-be-commentary.html

    – RNC RULES THAT ALLOW YOU TO WITHHOLD ANY VOTE FOR Trump
    Rule 16 (a) (2)
    The Secretary of the Convention shall faithfully announce and record each delegate’s vote in accordance
    with the delegate’s obligation under these rules, state law or state party rule. If any delegate bound by these rules, state party rule
    or state law to vote for a presidential candidate at the national convention demonstrates support under Rule 40 for any person
    other than the candidate to whom he or she is bound, such support shall not be recognized. Except as provided for by state law or
    state party rule, no presidential candidate shall have the power to remove a delegate.
    If a delegate does not vote for the candidate to whom they are bound they will lose their vote. But, if bound to Trump and they do not vote for Trump, Trump will not get their vote nor will the candidate they voted for. They have effectively removed a vote from Trump. This could affect Trump getting the 1237 in the first ballot. they will still be allowed to vote (unbound) in other ballots.
    #TrumpStopper

    Prior related posts:
    – Dear GOP Delegates, save the Republic, vote not for con-artist Trump, but conservative Ted Cruz!
    — https://thespeechatimeforchoosing.wordpress.com/2016/05/12/an-open-letter-and-urgent-plea-to-all-republican-delegates-headed-to-cleveland/#comment-51962
    –www.facebook.com/SaveLiberty/photos/a.188831138145865.1073741828.188807898148189/243960015966310/?type=3&theater
    — Kathy: Delegates Can Vote #TedCruz On The 1st Ballot at the Republican Convention per GOP Rule #38, backed up by the Constitution and Supreme Court Rulings!
    – The convention in July determines the nominee and the delegates are unbound in the first ballot. Please look at this it gives us hope.
    https://youtu.be/XuJH96AFrqQ

    FLASH! Report that Delegates Have Enough Votes to Nominate Cruz on 1st Ballot
    http://www.redstate.com/diary/blbennett/2016/05/28/flash-report-delegates-enough-votes-nominate-cruz-1st-ballot/
    #CharacterMatters, #nevertrump #NeverHillary, #WriteInCruz, #WriteInTedCruz, #MakeDonaldDrumpfAgain, #DumpTrump
    #AlwaysConstitutionalConservativeCruz #AlwaysPrinciples #AlwaysFreedomFighter #NeverNastyMouthLiarAndConmanTrump

    See more in the comment lines.

  7. Susien Sugeng

    The Conservative Minuteman
    SELECTED RULES OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY
    MAY 29 · PUBLIC
    Updated, updated, updated!!!!!!!!!!

    { Annotations in brackets are my own.}

    {These are the rules that will stop Trump.}

    RULE NO. 10

    Committees of the Republican National Committee

    (a) There shall be the following committees:
    {This “Standing Committee” has Mike Lee as Chairman.}

    (1) There shall be a Standing Committee on Rules of the Republican National Committee, composed of one(1) member of the Republican National Committee from each state, to review and propose recommendations with respect to The Rules of the Republican Party. The members of the Republican National Committee from each state shall caucus, and by majority vote, choose from their number a member to serve on this committee. The chairman of the Standing Committee on Rules, and such other officers as the Standing Committee on Rules shall deem necessary, shall be elected by the committee from among its members. The Standing Committee on Rules shall first consider all rule amendments submitted by any member of the committee at least fourteen (14) days before any regularly called meeting of the Republican National Committee or at least three (3) days before a specially called meeting to be considered by the Standing Committee on Rules. Read more: https://m.facebook.com/notes/the-conservative-minuteman/selected-rules-of-the-republican-party/1696467147244776/?refsrc=https%3A%2F%2Fm.facebook.com%2Flsr.php&refid=9&_rdr&_=_

  8. Pingback: Lazy millennials, corrupt Greenpeace, and an abortion spa: yesterday's links