On IPOeve, the Twitter Buzz doesn’t look Good

Twitter IPO Concerns

If you believe the trends, the speculations, and the odd lack of true hype surrounding the Twitter IPO, you’ll probably be asking yourself if this is going to be more like Facebook or more like Zynga. If it’s like the former, than it will only plummet at the start and eventually rebound. If it’s like Zynga, it may never recover despite their recent gains.

Those are the questions that are circulating the day before the IPO. Will investors bite? According to Digimind Social, there may be a reason for the concern.

On the eve of Twitter’s IPO, wanted to pass along data insights and graphics into what potential investors and consumers are saying about it on social channels. Digimind, a social media monitoring company, examined online conversations over the past week (Oct. 30 – Nov. 5), and found:

  • The buzz is negative: People are overwhelmingly negative about Twitter’s valuation price. More than 76% of online mentions were unfavorable in relation to Twitter’s share price or valuation. When looking at conversations just on Twitter itself, that number skyrockets to 94% of comments being negative.
  • Visual: View a full graphic analysis of the keywords people are using to talk about the IPO along with sentiment graphs here.
  • “TWTR” enters the vernacular: People are grasping onto Twitter’s stock symbol, TWTR, which has increased in volume by 419% over the past week within discussions online.
  • Under the shadow of Facebook: Out of the top 40 topics associated with Twitter’s IPO on social and online media, Facebook is the fifth most discussed concept.

The top one is the most concerning. Whether investors are willing to admit it or not, they listen to things like hype and buzz. If the hype is strong enough, the buzz should be strong as well. With the buzz as negative as it is, apparently Twitter hasn’t done a very good job at their dog and pony show. Facebook had a much better dog and pony show before their launch and it took a year to recover. This doesn’t bode well in 140-characters or less.

Twitter Considers Overpricing IPO

Twitter Fat

Good news came a week and a half ago when Twitter said they were wanting to be in the $17-$20 range to start their IPO. That didn’t last. Whether it’s their ego, poor advice, or ego fueled by poor advice, they’re now looking at the next price bracket of $23-$25.

We officially change our stance. You should not buy Twitter, not at first. The 20-25% bump in starting price means that they are likely going to go through the same rollercoaster that plagued Facebook for a year. The price over the next few months will likely dip below $15 because of the negative sentiment that will be created once it starts to fall under $20.

The sad part is that if they started in the $17 range as expected, they would have never dropped below $15. Now, our advice is to wait until they drop, even seeing if they approach single digits, then buy.

Here’s what Techcrunch has to say about it.

Twitter could price its IPO well above the new $23-$25 range it set earlier today, according to MicroVentures CEO Tim Sullivan. The pricing range was originally set at at $17-23.  Though he’s providing no guarantees, Sullivan says that there has been strong interest in the private market for Twitter shares over the past few months, which indicates that Twitter could price as high as $25-28 when it finalizes its S-1 this week.

Read More: Techcrunch

Will the Facebook IPO Skyrocket, then Plummet?

Roller Coaster

The buildup to the Facebook IPO scheduled for a week from now has been anything but boring. Even the boring parts are being blown up in ways that make them exciting, such as the media’s fascination with Mark Zuckerberg’s hoodie during his IPO roadshow. Long-term investors are starting to get the jitters based upon declarations of “innovation before profits” coming from Facebook’s upper management. Is the table being set for a roller coaster ride after their initial public offering?

Yes.

[Read more...]

Other Social Sites Trend Poorly Ahead of Facebook IPO

Facebook IPO

When an investment potential like Facebook comes along, there are always going to be alarmists. We’re not one of those.

There are, however, some minor disturbing trends happening at three public social media companies that may pose a threat to the success of Facebook’s IPO. A month before it’s scheduled to be offered, Yelp, Zynga, and Groupon are all performing poorly and trending down.

[Read more...]

Facebook Goes Public – How This Decision will affect Facebook and the Overall Stock Market?

Facebook

The world’s number one social media website, Facebook, filed for its initial public offering (IPO) earlier in February 2012. It didn’t come as a surprise for many in the industry, as any private company in the US with more than 10 million US dollars in assets and 500-plus stakeholders is required to file for detailed financials with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

What makes the whole affair extremely interesting is Facebook’s financial value (somewhere between 75 to 100 billion US dollars), makes it the most anticipated IPO debutant for an internet company since Google’s IPO filing in 2004. And once Facebook’s market shares are out in the stock market, it will be interesting to see how it affects the Facebook culture to develop and ship features without any external interference or security.

[Read more...]

Will Facebook Have a 12-Digit IPO Value?

Facebook IPO

Yes.

When Facebook decides that the time is ripe to go public, an event that many speculate will happen next year, chances are strong that unless something really bad happens over the next 8 months it will yield more than Amazon, Cisco, or Hewlett Packard when they went public. It could even approach Google, which hit $164 billion in it’s initial offering.

[Read more...]