Republicans are being told by the various pundits and talking heads that there’s a complex formula for stopping Donald Trump from getting the GOP nomination. They say that the two flailing bottom candidates need to win their states, then either drop out or push forward to a contested convention. This is wrong.
For the sake of the passion I feel against Donald Trump and his unwilling proxies, John Kasich and Marco Rubio, we’ll keep this post short. Ted Cruz can stop Trump from getting the nomination. All he needs is for the voters who support Kasich and Rubio to realize that their candidates have no path to the nomination and to coalesce behind Cruz. There’s no covert plan that can stop him without fracturing the party irreparably. Cruz is the only candidate who can flat out stop Trump – not Rubio, Kasich, Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan, Newt Gingrich, or any of the other secret weapons they’re planning on unveiling at the Republican National Convention. That’s not to say that there are no secret plans. It’s just that they won’t work and every sensible Republican needs to accept that it’s Trump, Cruz, or destruction.
The current thinking even among much of the electorate is that Kasich wins Ohio, Rubio wins Florida, then they drop out and pledge their support for Cruz. This is a pipe dream. They’re not going to drop out and support Cruz if they win their states. To be more specific, they won’t do it without very particular things happening, namely Kasich winning big in Ohio and then getting the VP tap. Unfortunately, Trump is the more likely choice for Kasich based upon how he’s changed his tune towards Trump in the last month, so those who believe Kasich winning Ohio will stop Trump are probably going to get a rude awakening.
As far as Rubio winning Florida, it’s not going to happen. He came in a distant fourth in Michigan and there are still plenty of voters who simply won’t vote for someone without a chance. Even more unfortunate is that there are plenty of people who still will vote for Rubio if he’s in the race. This means another anti-Trump vote that’s split between the three candidates. It means another big win in winner-take-all Florida.
If you’re a voter in one of those states, don’t listen to the hype or the complex secret plans being pushed by the elites. Vote for Trump or Cruz, whichever you would prefer as the nominee. A vote for Rubio or Kasich is, essentially, a vote for Trump anyway.
The longer that Kasich and Rubio are in the race, the more likely it is that Trump will be the nominee. In fact, it’s better for them to lose Ohio and Florida and drop out than to win them and stay in. The best scenario seems unlikely: cut a deal with Cruz and endorse him before March 15.