I stumbled upon Predictify recently and the my Social Spider Sense started tingling. “There’s something here, man. There’s something potentially good here.”
Upon joining, reading, examining, and predicting, I soon discovered that the site was loaded with potential. The basic premise is that large groups of people offering their predictions about future events can often offer more accurate looks into the future than small groups of experts. The platform offered at Predictify is designed to harness this power to determine who, what, where, and when.
There is a financial gain aspect to it as well. Someone who really wants to get answers to a question can pay for Premium questions. The charge is $1 per response. The money is split between the predictors who got it right with a portion going to Predictify. Each predictor’s share of the pot is based upon their accuracy on previous questions (free or premium), their level of expertise (which is based on a point system), and the timing of their submission (answering questions earlier is better).
The simplified description of the algorithm that determines payouts looks like this:
Total Payout = Accuracy / Time Payout + Level Bonus
Moving up in levels is based upon a point system. You can get points by referring new users, asking questions that get approved, sending invites and questions to friends, posting comments, and submitting predictions.
Pound for pound, this seems like an excellent overall idea. It seems fun and useful at the same time: just what Web 2.0 should be. It taps into the power of the collective wisdom while giving incentives to everyone involved to participate. The key will be marketing. Can they get this off the ground to go viral and become a force in the social internet world?
So far, they seem to be moving up nicely. They were involved with The New York Times football prediction project this year. They received a good bump on their launch from Mashable and several blogs. Only time will tell if it will work, but so far, so good. I just made a prediction about the Start of the US Recession. Hopefully, I’ll get my share of the $1500 pot!
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